The Observer Protocol — your calibration is your voice
Anyone can seal their own probability against any entry on the ledger or the projections. It locks the moment it is submitted, is never editable, and is graded on the same date, against the same published criterion, as the house's own number. Your Brier score appears beside ours.
Why reputation is scored rather than asserted
A contributed signal passes provenance checks, then a consistency test against the tracked feed corpus, then weighting by the author's own public Brier score, before it is absorbed into Pattern Memory or routed to human review. Weight comes from calibration, not from seniority, volume or confidence. Contradiction is itself information: a signal that conflicts with the observed record is flagged and documented rather than discarded.
The ladder
OBSERVER — registered, first signals contributed. CALIBRATED — a Brier score established over at least ten resolved calls, at which point signals gain standing weight in the Core. SENTINEL — sustained top-quartile calibration, a place on the blind-scoring panel and early access to sweeps. ORACLE-CLASS — top decile across three or more domains, maximum signal weight and a standing voice in what gets sealed next.
No score exists yet, and the site says so rather than inventing one: nothing on the ledger has resolved. The first entries answer in early 2027, and every observer is graded on the same day the house is. See how a prediction is made.