Live probabilistic projections 29 forecasts, each with a stated probability, a horizon and a written condition that would prove it wrong. GEO-01 — The world economy splits into rival trading blocs — 74% by NEXT 3-5YGEO-02 — A direct US-China military incident in the western Pacific — 38% by NEXT 3-5YGEO-03 — The 80-year nuclear taboo breaks: battlefield use of a nuclear weapon — 8% by NEXT 5-10YGEO-04 — A multi-breadbasket shock pushes acute food insecurity past 400M people — 48% by NEXT 3-5YFIN-01 — A US sovereign-debt stress event forces a fiscal regime change — 62% by NEXT 3-5YFIN-02 — The US enters a recession that deficits cannot cushion — 55% by NEXT 1-3YFIN-03 — Dollar reserve share breaks below 50% as gold re-monetizes — 45% by NEXT 5-10YFIN-04 — Commercial real estate losses force a second regional-bank consolidation wave — 47% by NEXT 1-3YTEC-01 — AI automates 25%+ of white-collar task-hours; the entry-level rung breaks — 70% by NEXT 3-5YTEC-02 — The first end-to-end AI-designed drug wins full FDA approval — 68% by NEXT 3-5YTEC-03 — The AI build-out collides with the grid: a data-center power crunch — 66% by NEXT 1-3YCRY-01 — Ten or more nations hold strategic bitcoin reserves — 55% by NEXT 3-5YCRY-02 — Tokenized real-world assets cross $1 trillion on-chain — 52% by NEXT 3-5YCRY-03 — A top-3 stablecoin breaks the buck or is forced into restructuring — 30% by NEXT 1-3YSOC-01 — A synthetic-media operation materially decides a national election — 58% by NEXT 1-3YSOC-02 — Age-gated social media becomes the OECD norm — the tobacco moment arrives — 66% by NEXT 1-3YSOC-03 — The generational wealth rupture becomes an organized political movement — 60% by NEXT 3-5YCLI-01 — Insurance retreat triggers a climate repricing of housing in a G7 economy — 62% by NEXT 3-5YCLI-02 — A humid-heat event crosses survivability thresholds with mass casualties — 45% by NEXT 3-5YSPC-01 — First credible detection of extraterrestrial life — 40% by NEXT 5-10YGEO-05 — A formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or armistice is in effect at the end of 2027 — 48% by NEXT 6-18MCLI-03 — 2026 enters the books as one of the two warmest years ever measured — 66% by NEXT 6-18MCLI-04 — The world finally adopts a global plastics treaty — 28% by NEXT 6-18MTEC-04 — A frontier lab documents an AI agent completing a full week of professional work autonomously — 75% by NEXT 6-18MTEC-05 — Humanoid robots cross the industrial threshold: 50,000 shipped in a single year — 55% by NEXT 6-18MFIN-05 — A G7 central bank is forced into a full-point rate-cutting cycle — 38% by NEXT 6-18MSOC-04 — The global baby bust deepens: China and Japan both set new record lows in 2026 — 50% by NEXT 6-18MSOC-05 — H5N1 crosses the pandemic threshold: sustained human-to-human transmission confirmed — 12% by NEXT 6-30MSPC-02 — Starship touches down on the Moon — the uncrewed landing that unlocks Artemis — 32% by NEXT 6-18M