Bitcoin records a daily close above $150,000 on a major reference rate.
CAL-08 — sealed at 58% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2028-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if BTC-USD posts a daily close above $150,000 on Coinbase or the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate at any point between sealing and 2028-12-31. Intraday wicks do not count; a single qualifying daily close resolves the entry.
Field notes
2026-08-28
No qualifying close. ATH remains $126,198 (Oct 2025); BTC rallied ~22% in late August to ~$80–81K on the Treasury-buyback surprise — still ~47% below the $150K bar with 28 months on the clock.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
Subjects this belongs to
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