Bitcoin & Digital Assets
Crypto forecasting is where confident numbers go to be forgotten. These were timestamped, and the least comfortable of them — a top-3 stablecoin failing — is published at the same prominence as the bullish ones.
The ledger — hash-sealed, scored in public
CORRECT if BTC-USD posts a daily close above $150,000 on Coinbase or the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate at any point between sealing and 2028-12-31. Intraday wicks do not count; a single qualifying daily close resolves the entry.
Resolves by 2028-12-31. Status: PENDING.
Live projections
The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Executive Order, March 2025, seeded with ~200K seized BTC) flipped the game theory: once the largest economy holds it, non-adoption becomes the position that needs defending. The same reflexive cascade governed gold accumulation in the reserve era — small states move first, then the herd.
Wrong if: by end-2029 fewer than ten sovereign states publicly disclose bitcoin holdings as reserve or strategic assets, or the US reserve is liquidated by statute or executive action.
Window: 2026-2029.
Stablecoins (~$300B, with a US federal framework since the GENIUS Act of July 2025) already proved that tokenized dollars work at scale; tokenized Treasuries went from zero to ~$8B in two years behind BlackRock's BUIDL. $1T needs only ~0.2% of global securities to migrate — the consultancy range (McKinsey ~$2T, BCG up to $16T by 2030) brackets this comfortably.
Wrong if: total tokenized RWA value (ex-stablecoins) remains below $300B by end-2030, or a major tokenized-fund failure freezes institutional issuance for multiple years.
Window: 2027-2031.
Stablecoins are now ~$300B of de facto money-market fund running on attestation trust, with the largest issuer still unaudited and facing GENIUS Act compliance deadlines. Money-market history is unambiguous: instruments promising par without a lender of last resort eventually get tested — Reserve Primary (2008) and USDC's own $3.3B SVB weekend (2023) were the rehearsals.
Wrong if: through 2029 no top-3 stablecoin trades below $0.95 for more than 24 hours, and the largest issuers publish full audited reserves under the GENIUS framework without restructuring.
Window: 2026-2029.
Other subjects on the record
Every claim above is also listed in the full projection registry and the calibration ledger. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.