The sealed record, by subject
The projection registry is organised by domain, which is the right shape for somebody already inside the instrument and the wrong shape for somebody who typed a subject into a search box. These are that second door: the same sealed entries, gathered around the thing people actually look up.
Every claim below was timestamped before its outcome was known and is graded in public on its date, with the misses printed at the same size as the hits.
What happens to US federal debt, scored not argued: 78% past 105% of GDP, 62% on a fiscal-stress event. Locked odds, hard dates, kill-conditions.
7 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
De-dollarisation, scored. 45% that reserve share breaks below 50%; 8% on the aggressive case — sealed deliberately low against the headlines.
4 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
70% that AI automates 25%+ of white-collar task-hours. 75% on the autonomous agent workweek. Locked before the outcome, scored in public.
7 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
55% that humanoid robots cross 50,000 units shipped in a single year. One number, one deadline, one condition that would prove it wrong.
4 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
82% that no US-China live fire occurs through 2029; 38% on a direct Pacific incident; 14% on a semiconductor blockade. Sealed, dated, falsifiable.
4 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
66% that the AI build-out collides with grid capacity. Plus the tail scenarios — cyberwar, solar superstorm — priced separately and dated.
4 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
12% on a Carrington-class solar superstorm in the window, with the cascade chain written out and the observable that would confirm it early.
3 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
12% that H5N1 crosses the pandemic threshold with sustained human-to-human transmission. Sealed low, dated, with the trigger named.
3 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
58% on a daily close above $150,000. 55% on ten sovereign bitcoin reserves. 30% that a top-3 stablecoin breaks the buck. All dated.
4 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
76% that a new global heat record is set by 2029. 62% that insurance retreat reprices housing in a G7 market. Sourced, sealed, scored.
7 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.
58% that a synthetic-media operation materially decides a national election. Sealed with the adjudication standard written in advance.
3 sealed entries, each carrying a probability, a resolution date and a written kill-condition.