2026 ranks among the two warmest calendar years ever measured, in both major global temperature analyses.
CAL-12 — sealed at 66% on 2026-07-11. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-02-28.
What decides it
CORRECT if the annual 2026 analyses from BOTH NASA GISTEMP and Copernicus ERA5, published January–February 2027, rank 2026 first or second among all calendar years on record. Either analysis ranking it third or lower scores INCORRECT. This is the fastest-resolving seal on the ledger.
Field notes
2026-08-28
AT RISK. Jan–Jul 2026 ranks third-highest year-to-date; July was joint-second-warmest July (Copernicus). NOAA’s outlook now favors 3rd–4th warmest for the full year. A developing El Niño could lift late-2026 months — but top-2 needs a strong finish. We may well score INCORRECT here in January, in public, as designed.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
Subjects this belongs to
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