At least one calendar year from 2026 through 2029 sets a new global temperature record.

CAL-07 — sealed at 76% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2030-06-30.

What decides it

CORRECT if NASA GISTEMP or NOAA NCEI declares any of 2026, 2027, 2028 or 2029 the warmest calendar year on record in their annual analyses, published by 2030-06-30. Record holder at sealing: 2024, ≈1.55°C above pre-industrial (WMO) — the first calendar year above 1.5°C.

The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.

Subjects this belongs to

Climate, Heat & Insurance

More on this desk

CLI-01 — Insurance retreat triggers a climate repricing of housing in a G7 economy — sealed 62%
CLI-02 — A humid-heat event crosses survivability thresholds with mass casualties — sealed 45%
CLI-03 — 2026 enters the books as one of the two warmest years ever measured — sealed 66%
CLI-04 — The world finally adopts a global plastics treaty — sealed 28%
CAL-10 — Global solar installations exceed 900 GW(dc) in a single calendar year by 2030. — sealed 66%
CAL-12 — 2026 ranks among the two warmest calendar years ever measured, in both major global temperature analyses. — sealed 66%

Browse the Climate & Resources desk, the full projection registry, the calibration ledger, or the record by subject. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.