Global solar installations exceed 900 GW(dc) in a single calendar year by 2030.

CAL-10 — sealed at 66% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2031-06-30.

What decides it

CORRECT if IEA, BloombergNEF or SolarPower Europe reports global annual PV additions above 900 GWdc for any calendar year through 2030, with final figures published by 2031-06-30. Baseline at sealing: ≈599 GWdc installed worldwide in 2024 (BloombergNEF).

The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.

Subjects this belongs to

Climate, Heat & Insurance

More on this desk

CLI-01 — Insurance retreat triggers a climate repricing of housing in a G7 economy — sealed 62%
CLI-02 — A humid-heat event crosses survivability thresholds with mass casualties — sealed 45%
CLI-03 — 2026 enters the books as one of the two warmest years ever measured — sealed 66%
CLI-04 — The world finally adopts a global plastics treaty — sealed 28%
CAL-07 — At least one calendar year from 2026 through 2029 sets a new global temperature record. — sealed 76%
CAL-12 — 2026 ranks among the two warmest calendar years ever measured, in both major global temperature analyses. — sealed 66%

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