Age-gated social media becomes the OECD norm — the tobacco moment arrives
SOC-02 · probability 66% (confidence 68%, ±11 pts) over 2026-2029 · horizon NEXT 1-3Y · domain society. Probabilistic simulation, not advice.
The reading
Australia's under-16 ban took effect in December 2025 and the UK's Online Safety Act age checks went live in mid-2025 — the regulatory dam has already cracked. The pattern is tobacco circa 1998: converging epidemiology (teen depression roughly doubled 2012-2022), mass litigation against platforms, and legislators who have stopped debating whether and started debating how.
What would prove this wrong
This projection is WRONG if by end-2029, fewer than 10 OECD countries have binding age-verification or minimum-age requirements for social platforms, or Australia's regime is repealed as unworkable.
Trigger events tracked
- Early Australian enforcement data showing feasible compliance (the proof-of-concept every legislature is watching)
- EU-level minimum-age or verification mandate moving from proposal to directive
- US multi-district litigation against major platforms reaching settlement or verdict
- A high-profile algorithmic-harm case fixing political attention (each one ratchets, none reverse)
Causal chain
Historical precedents
If it happens
Sources
Directly related seals
Subjects this belongs to
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