Deepfakes & Information Integrity
This one carries a live field note against it: public attention to deepfakes has been FALLING while the seal stands at 58%. We publish the divergence rather than quietly adjusting the number, because adjusting it is the thing this ledger exists not to do.
Live projections
Romania already annulled a presidential first round (December 2024) over a coordinated influence operation, and detection remains structurally 12-18 months behind generation. The binding constraint is timing: a convincing fake released inside the final 72 hours of a close race cannot be debunked faster than it spreads — the question is when, not whether.
Wrong if: through 2028, no national election outcome is credibly attributed by election authorities or courts to synthetic-media operations, and no result is annulled or formally disputed on those grounds.
Window: 2026-2028.
Australia's under-16 ban took effect in December 2025 and the UK's Online Safety Act age checks went live in mid-2025 — the regulatory dam has already cracked. The pattern is tobacco circa 1998: converging epidemiology (teen depression roughly doubled 2012-2022), mass litigation against platforms, and legislators who have stopped debating whether and started debating how.
Wrong if: by end-2029, fewer than 10 OECD countries have binding age-verification or minimum-age requirements for social platforms, or Australia's regime is repealed as unworkable.
Window: 2026-2029.
Tail scenarios
More than 70% of trades are already algorithmic, and AI increasingly governs power dispatch, logistics, air traffic and defensive triage. Each system is tested alone; the interactions between them are not. A shared dependency, an adversarial input, or an emergent feedback loop can propagate across domains faster than human operators can intervene. The 2010 Flash Crash — a trillion dollars gone in six minutes (SEC/CFTC, 2010) — was the small preview.
Other subjects on the record
Every claim above is also listed in the full projection registry and the calibration ledger. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.