NASA lands astronauts on the lunar surface (Artemis III) by the end of 2028.
CAL-09 — sealed at 25% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2028-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if a crewed Artemis III lunar surface landing is completed and confirmed by NASA on or before 2028-12-31. Sealed LOW deliberately: the official schedule says mid-2027, but Starship HLS milestones and suit readiness have slipped before, and GAO has repeatedly flagged the timeline. The base case says NO.
Field notes
2026-08-28
Adjudication clarification: this entry is EVENT-based — a crewed NASA lunar surface landing confirmed by 2028-12-31, under whatever mission designation. NASA’s 2026 replan made "Artemis III" a low-Earth-orbit demo and moved the crewed landing to Artemis IV (~2028), so the mission name in the statement is historical framing, not a second condition. OIG flags HLS readiness risk even for 2028 — the sealed 25% stands as the long shot it was priced as.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
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