No uncrewed Starship HLS soft-lands on the Moon before 2028 — the Artemis III critical path slips past 2027.
CAL-16 — sealed at 68% on 2026-07-11. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if no uncrewed Starship HLS completes a confirmed soft landing on the lunar surface by 2027-12-31, per NASA and SpaceX mission confirmations. A confirmed soft landing on or before that date scores INCORRECT. Sealed as the base case given the demonstrated launch cadence and unproven orbital-refueling chain.
Field notes
2026-08-28
ON TRACK. NASA’s restructure stands: the crewed landing has moved to Artemis IV in 2028, and OIG flags HLS readiness risk even for that date — in-space cryogenic refueling and an uncrewed lunar test both undemonstrated. No landing scheduled before 2028.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
More on this desk
Browse the Space desk, the full projection registry, the calibration ledger, or the record by subject. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.