At least one G7 central bank cuts its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points or more between July 2026 and end-2027.
CAL-15 — sealed at 38% on 2026-07-11. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if between 2026-07-01 and 2027-12-31 any G7 central bank (Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada) reduces its primary policy rate by ≥100bp cumulative from its July 2026 level, per official policy announcements. A full-point cycle signals recession-grade easing — this entry is sealed as the minority case.
Field notes
2026-08-28
Zero cuts in the window — and the bias tilted hawkish (Fed held 3.50–3.75% with three dissents wanting HIGHER; BoJ held at 1.00% after its June hike; energy-shock inflation cited across banks). The sealed minority case (38%) is currently losing, exactly as the seal expected.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
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