The US dollar falls below 45% of allocated global FX reserves in IMF COFER data.

CAL-06 — sealed at 8% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2030-12-31.

What decides it

CORRECT if any quarterly IMF COFER release through 2030-12-31 shows the US dollar share of allocated reserves below 45%. Baseline at sealing: ≈57–58% (COFER, 2025). Sealed LOW deliberately — de-dollarization is real, but reserve inertia is measured in decades, not news cycles. The base case says NO.

The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.

Subjects this belongs to

The Dollar & Reserve Currency

More on this desk

FIN-01 — A US sovereign-debt stress event forces a fiscal regime change — sealed 62%
FIN-02 — The US enters a recession that deficits cannot cushion — sealed 55%
FIN-03 — Dollar reserve share breaks below 50% as gold re-monetizes — sealed 45%
FIN-04 — Commercial real estate losses force a second regional-bank consolidation wave — sealed 47%
FIN-05 — A G7 central bank is forced into a full-point rate-cutting cycle — sealed 38%
CAL-01 — US federal debt held by the public exceeds 105% of GDP in an official CBO or FRED reading. — sealed 78%
CAL-04 — The S&P 500 avoids a drawdown of 25% or more between sealing and mid-2027. — sealed 78%
CAL-15 — At least one G7 central bank cuts its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points or more between July 2026 and end-2027. — sealed 38%

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