US federal debt held by the public exceeds 105% of GDP in an official CBO or FRED reading.
CAL-01 — sealed at 78% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2029-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if FRED series FYGFGDQ188S (federal debt held by the public, % of GDP) prints ≥105 for any quarter, or CBO reports an actual — not projected — fiscal-year figure ≥105%, on or before 2029-12-31. Baseline at sealing: ≈100% of GDP (CBO, 2025); CBO baseline crosses the 1946 record (~106%) in 2029.
Field notes
2026-08-28
Debt held by the public ≈$32.3T, ~100% of GDP (CRFB, Aug 2026); FRED Q1-2026 official reading 98.7%. 10Y/30Y yields near 20-year highs; Treasury doubled long-end buybacks from Sept. Trajectory unchanged.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
Subjects this belongs to
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