The S&P 500 avoids a drawdown of 25% or more between sealing and mid-2027.

CAL-04 — sealed at 78% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-06-30.

What decides it

CORRECT if, before 2027-06-30, the S&P 500 daily close never falls 25% or more below its highest daily close recorded after 2026-07-03. One clean threshold, daily closing data only, no interpretation. This entry resolves at the first public scoring in July 2027.

Field notes

2026-08-28

S&P 500 set fresh record closes in August (7,799 mid-month; Dow crossed 54,000 Aug 4) before a ~1.4% pullback. Max drawdown since sealing: single digits — far from the 25% bar. Tracking CORRECT so far.

The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.

Subjects this belongs to

US Debt & Fiscal Stress

More on this desk

FIN-01 — A US sovereign-debt stress event forces a fiscal regime change — sealed 62%
FIN-02 — The US enters a recession that deficits cannot cushion — sealed 55%
FIN-03 — Dollar reserve share breaks below 50% as gold re-monetizes — sealed 45%
FIN-04 — Commercial real estate losses force a second regional-bank consolidation wave — sealed 47%
FIN-05 — A G7 central bank is forced into a full-point rate-cutting cycle — sealed 38%
CAL-01 — US federal debt held by the public exceeds 105% of GDP in an official CBO or FRED reading. — sealed 78%
CAL-06 — The US dollar falls below 45% of allocated global FX reserves in IMF COFER data. — sealed 8%
CAL-15 — At least one G7 central bank cuts its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points or more between July 2026 and end-2027. — sealed 38%

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