Humanoid robots cross the industrial threshold: at least 50,000 units shipped worldwide in calendar 2026.
CAL-14 — sealed at 55% on 2026-07-11. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-06-30.
What decides it
CORRECT if full-year 2026 global humanoid shipment tallies published by IDC, TrendForce or Omdia by 2027-06-30 reach 50,000 units or more. Announced orders and backlogs do not count — shipped units only.
Field notes
2026-08-28
ON TRACK, needs H2 acceleration. First hard tally: ~19,100 units shipped in H1 2026 (+272% YoY), Chinese makers at 97% share, AgiBot overtaking Unitree. Hitting 50K requires H2 to roughly double H1 — IPO-funded capacity makes it plausible, not assured.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
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