The AI build-out collides with the grid: a data-center power crunch
TEC-03 · probability 66% (confidence 70%, ±10 pts) over 2026-2029 · horizon NEXT 1-3Y · domain technology. Probabilistic simulation, not advice.
The reading
US data centers consumed 4.4% of national electricity in 2023 and are projected at up to 12% by 2028 (LBNL); the 2024 PJM capacity auction cleared ~10x its prior price before a single gigawatt of that demand peaked. Either generation build-out accelerates to wartime tempo, or electricity prices become the next inflation politics — most likely both.
What would prove this wrong
This projection is WRONG if through 2028, average US retail electricity prices rise no faster than CPI, no major grid operator declares data-center-driven resource inadequacy, and interconnection queues shorten.
Trigger events tracked
- Capacity-auction repricing spreading beyond PJM to MISO/ERCOT
- A moratorium on new data-center interconnections by a major utility or state
- Retail rate cases explicitly attributing increases to hyperscaler load growth
- Behind-the-meter gas/nuclear deals (the 2024-25 template) triggering regulatory backlash
Causal chain
Historical precedents
If it happens
Sources
Directly related seals
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