A formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or armistice is in effect at the end of 2027
GEO-05 · probability 48% (confidence 55%, ±15 pts) over 2026-2027 · horizon NEXT 6-18M · domain geopolitics. Probabilistic simulation, not advice.
The reading
As of sealing (July 2026) the war is in an endgame that refuses to end: US-brokered trilateral meetings in Geneva since February, a direct Trump–Putin–Zelensky telephone round in early July, prisoner exchanges through the spring — and a front line that has not stopped moving. The two blockers are unchanged since 2024: Moscow demands the whole of Donbas, Kyiv demands Western security guarantees Moscow rejects. Wars of this shape end when both sides conclude another year buys nothing — Korea took two years of talks while the shooting continued — so the probability sits just below a coin flip: the machinery for a deal exists, but neither blocker has visibly softened. Ledger kin: CAL-05 asks the six-month-hold version (sealed higher at 55% because its window runs a full year longer, to end-2028) of this question.
What would prove this wrong
This projection is WRONG if on 2027-12-31 no signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is in force — either none was signed, or a signed one has collapsed back into open hostilities by that date, as documented by major international news organizations and ACLED conflict data.
Trigger events tracked
- The Geneva track producing a written framework document both delegations acknowledge
- A Russian fiscal or battlefield stress event that changes Moscow's time preference
- A US aid or sanctions decision point forcing one side's calculus (the 2026 template: pressure diplomacy)
- Front-line stalemate through the 2026-27 winter making the map argument moot
Causal chain
Historical precedents
If it happens
Sources
Directly related seals
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