Solar Storms & Space Weather
Space weather is the clearest case of a low-probability, high-consequence risk that is easier to ignore than to price. It is priced here, low, with the cascade written down — because a small number stated in advance is worth more than a large one stated afterwards.
Live projections
US data centers consumed 4.4% of national electricity in 2023 and are projected at up to 12% by 2028 (LBNL); the 2024 PJM capacity auction cleared ~10x its prior price before a single gigawatt of that demand peaked. Either generation build-out accelerates to wartime tempo, or electricity prices become the next inflation politics — most likely both.
Wrong if: through 2028, average US retail electricity prices rise no faster than CPI, no major grid operator declares data-center-driven resource inadequacy, and interconnection queues shorten.
Window: 2026-2029.
Tail scenarios
A coronal mass ejection on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event induces geomagnetic currents that overload extra-high-voltage transformers — bespoke units with 12–24 month lead times and almost no spares. In July 2012 a Carrington-class CME crossed Earth’s orbit just nine days ahead of the planet (Baker et al., 2013). The US National Academy of Sciences estimated a severe event could cause $1–2 trillion in first-year damage, with a multi-year recovery.
State actors have already burrowed into Western critical infrastructure — CISA’s 2023–2024 Volt Typhoon advisories describe implants pre-positioned for disruption, not espionage. Ukraine’s grid was switched off remotely twice (BlackEnergy, 2015; Industroyer, 2016). Modern grids expose OT/SCADA control layers to networked attack surfaces, so a coordinated strike could black out regions simultaneously and hold them down.
Other subjects on the record
Every claim above is also listed in the full projection registry and the calibration ledger. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.