The Dollar & Reserve Currency
De-dollarisation is asserted constantly and quantified almost never. Two of the entries below were sealed deliberately AGAINST the prevailing narrative, at low probabilities, because that is where a calibrated instrument earns or loses its reputation.
The ledger — hash-sealed, scored in public
CORRECT if any quarterly IMF COFER release through 2030-12-31 shows the US dollar share of allocated reserves below 45%. Baseline at sealing: ≈57–58% (COFER, 2025). Sealed LOW deliberately — de-dollarization is real, but reserve inertia is measured in decades, not news cycles. The base case says NO.
Resolves by 2030-12-31. Status: PENDING.
Live projections
The dollar's reserve share has slid from 71% (1999) to ~58% (IMF COFER, 2025) while central banks bought 1,000+ tonnes of gold for three straight years — enough that gold overtook the euro as the world's #2 reserve asset in 2025. Reserve transitions are glacial until they are sudden; sterling's took thirty years and one Suez.
Wrong if: IMF COFER shows the dollar share stabilizing at or above 57% through 2030, and central-bank net gold purchases fall below 500t/yr for two consecutive years.
Window: 2026-2032.
The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Executive Order, March 2025, seeded with ~200K seized BTC) flipped the game theory: once the largest economy holds it, non-adoption becomes the position that needs defending. The same reflexive cascade governed gold accumulation in the reserve era — small states move first, then the herd.
Wrong if: by end-2029 fewer than ten sovereign states publicly disclose bitcoin holdings as reserve or strategic assets, or the US reserve is liquidated by statute or executive action.
Window: 2026-2029.
Tail scenarios
Global debt hit a record $348 trillion in 2025 — about 305% of world GDP (IIF Global Debt Monitor). Higher-for-longer rates raise rollover costs; when one sovereign loses market access, downgrades and capital flight strike structurally similar economies through contagion. The IMF and World Bank lack the balance sheet to rescue many countries simultaneously.
Other subjects on the record
Every claim above is also listed in the full projection registry and the calibration ledger. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.