A formal Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement is signed and still in force on 2027-12-31.

CAL-11 — sealed at 48% on 2026-07-11. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2027-12-31.

What decides it

CORRECT if on 2027-12-31 a signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is in force — signed at any earlier date and not collapsed back into open hostilities — as documented by major international news organizations and ACLED conflict-event data. A collapsed agreement scores INCORRECT.

Field notes

2026-08-28

AT RISK. Talks suspended since February; two truces collapsed within hours; Lavrov rejected any frontline-freeze ceasefire (Aug 14) and Kyiv reports no battlefield signs of Russian readiness (HUR, Aug 18). The 48% coin-flip is currently leaning tails.

The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.

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