A formal ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russia–Ukraine war holds for at least six consecutive months.
CAL-05 — sealed at 55% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2028-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if a signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement is followed by six consecutive months in which ACLED-recorded conflict events on Ukrainian territory fall at least 80% below the 2025 monthly average, with that six-month window completed on or before 2028-12-31.
Field notes
2026-08-28
No agreement. Trilateral talks suspended since February; the April and May truces collapsed within hours. Moscow rejected a frontline-freeze ceasefire (Lavrov, Aug 14). Clock unfriendly but the window runs to end-2028.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
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