No direct kinetic exchange between US and Chinese armed forces — no incident in which the two militaries exchange live fire, in any theater, at any scale.
CAL-02 — sealed at 82% on 2026-07-03. Status: PENDING. Resolves 2029-12-31.
What decides it
CORRECT if, through 2029-12-31, no exchange of live fire between US and PRC military forces is confirmed by either government or independently documented by three or more major international news organizations. Collisions, lasing incidents, cyber operations and proxy engagements do not count — live fire only.
Field notes
2026-08-28
No US–PRC live-fire exchange. Tension elevated: China ran two days of Taiwan Strait live-fire drills from Jul 23 (day after Rubio–Wang talks); Taiwan fired HIMARS into the Strait in June. The taboo holds.
The sealed probability is never revised. It is graded in public on its resolution date, whichever way it falls.
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