Armed Conflict & War Risk
War is the subject people most want a prophecy about and the one where a stated probability matters most. Each entry below was sealed with a resolution date and a written description of the world in which it is wrong; the seals are judged against official records — ceasefire texts, defence-ministry incident logs — not against headlines. Nothing here is revised after the fact.
The ledger — hash-sealed, scored in public
CORRECT if, through 2029-12-31, no exchange of live fire between US and PRC military forces is confirmed by either government or independently documented by three or more major international news organizations. Collisions, lasing incidents, cyber operations and proxy engagements do not count — live fire only.
Resolves by 2029-12-31. Status: PENDING.
CORRECT if a signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement is followed by six consecutive months in which ACLED-recorded conflict events on Ukrainian territory fall at least 80% below the 2025 monthly average, with that six-month window completed on or before 2028-12-31.
Resolves by 2028-12-31. Status: PENDING.
CORRECT if on 2027-12-31 a signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is in force — signed at any earlier date and not collapsed back into open hostilities — as documented by major international news organizations and ACLED conflict-event data. A collapsed agreement scores INCORRECT.
Resolves by 2027-12-31. Status: PENDING.
Live projections
Not full war — a collision, a shoot-down, a blockade probe that produces casualties and forces both capitals to the brink before de-escalating. Allison found that 12 of 16 rising-vs-ruling power transitions ended in war; the modern tripwires are Taiwan (which fabricates ~90% of leading-edge chips) and the Second Thomas Shoal.
Wrong if: through 2031 there is no US-China military contact producing casualties AND PLA air incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ fall back below their 2021 tempo for a sustained year.
Window: 2026-2031.
As of sealing (July 2026) the war is in an endgame that refuses to end: US-brokered trilateral meetings in Geneva since February, a direct Trump–Putin–Zelensky telephone round in early July, prisoner exchanges through the spring — and a front line that has not stopped moving. The two blockers are unchanged since 2024: Moscow demands the whole of Donbas, Kyiv demands Western security guarantees Moscow rejects. Wars of this shape end when both sides conclude another year buys nothing — Korea took two years of talks while the shooting continued — so the probability sits just below a coin flip: the machinery for a deal exists, but neither blocker has visibly softened. Ledger kin: CAL-05 asks the six-month-hold version (sealed higher at 55% because its window runs a full year longer, to end-2028) of this question.
Wrong if: on 2027-12-31 no signed ceasefire, armistice or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is in force — either none was signed, or a signed one has collapsed back into open hostilities by that date, as documented by major international news organizations and ACLED conflict data.
Window: 2026-2027.
Nine states hold ~12,200 warheads (FAS 2025); Russia formally lowered its use threshold in November 2024, Pakistan fields battlefield-range systems, and May 2025 saw the first drone-and-missile war fought directly between two nuclear powers. Low probability, but this is a ruin-class risk: the expected cost dwarfs the odds.
Wrong if: by 2035 no nuclear weapon has been detonated in anger AND at least one major arms-control instrument (New START successor or equivalent) has been signed.
Window: 2026-2035.
Tail scenarios
Taiwan fabricates the overwhelming majority of the world’s most advanced logic chips — TSMC alone makes roughly 90% of sub-7nm silicon. A blockade, quarantine or conflict removes that supply with no near-term replacement: a leading-edge fab takes three-to-five years and tens of billions to build. This is a single point of failure wired into the entire digital economy; Bloomberg Economics has put the cost of a full-blown Taiwan conflict near $10 trillion in lost output.
Other subjects on the record
Every claim above is also listed in the full projection registry and the calibration ledger. Scoring is explained in how a prediction is made.