The Desks — seven sectors, one instrument

Every desk reads the same Core. A desk is a filter, not a second book: the probabilities are identical to the ones published on the projections and the ledger, narrowed to one domain and paired with the standing series that domain trades on.

War & Geopolitics

5 live projections and 3 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

Finance & Debt

5 live projections and 4 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

FIN-01 — A US sovereign-debt stress event forces a fiscal regime change — sealed 62%
FIN-02 — The US enters a recession that deficits cannot cushion — sealed 55%
FIN-03 — Dollar reserve share breaks below 50% as gold re-monetizes — sealed 45%
FIN-04 — Commercial real estate losses force a second regional-bank consolidation wave — sealed 47%
FIN-05 — A G7 central bank is forced into a full-point rate-cutting cycle — sealed 38%
CAL-01 — US federal debt held by the public exceeds 105% of GDP in an official CBO or FRED reading. — sealed 78%

Technology & AI

10 live projections and 3 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

TEC-01 — AI automates 25%+ of white-collar task-hours; the entry-level rung breaks — sealed 70%
TEC-02 — The first end-to-end AI-designed drug wins full FDA approval — sealed 68%
TEC-03 — The AI build-out collides with the grid: a data-center power crunch — sealed 66%
TEC-04 — A frontier lab documents an AI agent completing a full week of professional work autonomously — sealed 75%
TEC-05 — Humanoid robots cross the industrial threshold: 50,000 shipped in a single year — sealed 55%
ELN-01 — Superhuman performance across all digital work by the end of 2027 — sealed 4%

Blockchain & Crypto

3 live projections and 1 sealed ledger entry on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

CRY-01 — Ten or more nations hold strategic bitcoin reserves — sealed 55%
CRY-02 — Tokenized real-world assets cross $1 trillion on-chain — sealed 52%
CRY-03 — A top-3 stablecoin breaks the buck or is forced into restructuring — sealed 30%
CAL-08 — Bitcoin records a daily close above $150,000 on a major reference rate. — sealed 58%

Society & Politics

5 live projections and 0 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

SOC-01 — A synthetic-media operation materially decides a national election — sealed 58%
SOC-02 — Age-gated social media becomes the OECD norm — the tobacco moment arrives — sealed 66%
SOC-03 — The generational wealth rupture becomes an organized political movement — sealed 60%
SOC-04 — The global baby bust deepens: China and Japan both set new record lows in 2026 — sealed 50%
SOC-05 — H5N1 crosses the pandemic threshold: sustained human-to-human transmission confirmed — sealed 12%

Climate & Resources

4 live projections and 3 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

CLI-01 — Insurance retreat triggers a climate repricing of housing in a G7 economy — sealed 62%
CLI-02 — A humid-heat event crosses survivability thresholds with mass casualties — sealed 45%
CLI-03 — 2026 enters the books as one of the two warmest years ever measured — sealed 66%
CLI-04 — The world finally adopts a global plastics treaty — sealed 28%
CAL-07 — At least one calendar year from 2026 through 2029 sets a new global temperature record. — sealed 76%
CAL-10 — Global solar installations exceed 900 GW(dc) in a single calendar year by 2030. — sealed 66%

Space

4 live projections and 2 sealed ledger entries on this desk. The wire filtered to the sector, the standing series with their sourced prints, the tail scenarios, and what would falsify the desk this week.

SPC-01 — First credible detection of extraterrestrial life — sealed 40%
SPC-02 — Starship touches down on the Moon — the uncrewed landing that unlocks Artemis — sealed 32%
ELN-05 — An uncrewed SpaceX vehicle soft-lands intact on Mars by 2031 — sealed 20%
ELN-06 — A human being lands on Mars by 2033 — sealed 3%
CAL-09 — NASA lands astronauts on the lunar surface (Artemis III) by the end of 2028. — sealed 25%
CAL-16 — No uncrewed Starship HLS soft-lands on the Moon before 2028 — the Artemis III critical path slips past 2027. — sealed 68%

A Desk Pass opens one sector to full depth; the Instrument Pass opens all seven at once. See what each pass opens.